Market intelligence · Coffee

Read the coffee market before you commit.

One consolidated report every day, after the close. Prices, scenarios, positioning, weather and a plain-language read — for Arabica and Robusta, on the exchanges that actually matter.

USDA · ICE (Arabica & Robusta) · CFTC · NOAA ENSO · specialized press
One report a day · Full platform access · Verifiable track record
Today's signal CLOSE ·
Arabica
ICE · front month · ¢/lb
Robusta
ICE · front month · USD/MT
A–R differential
— ¢/lb equiv.
Stock-to-consumption
vs ICO 12% reference
System bias
🔒 Price ranges, alerts & today's recommendation — open during your trial
What's inside every report

Six angles on the same price — so you see the whole board, not one number.

Every daily report reads the market from every direction that matters, in plain language and one consistent view.

◦ Actual output · one week of the daily report

Arábica · Position vs MC distribution — cents/lb · filtered to M2 (53 runs)

Monte Carlo · price path over time

The real price tracked day by day against the simulated P5–P95 and P25–P75 bands.

Arabica · P61 5y · balanced
Robusta · P88 5y · extreme_long

Speculative positioning (COT)

Where the funds are leaning, and how crowded the trade has become.

Arabica · Term structure
today1w1m
Arabica · M1–M2 spread (c/lb) · +19.7 · P97
Robusta · Term structure
today1w1m
Robusta · M1–M2 spread (USD/MT) · +41.0 · P47

Term structure · M1–M2 spread

Backwardation or contango: how tight the front of the curve is right now.

Arabica · Price Seasonality · Expected 6w drift: +11.0%
Robusta · Price Seasonality · Expected 6w drift: +13.7%

Seasonality vs 5-year mean

Where price sits against its normal seasonal path for this time of year.

Arábica — eq base 252.02 (-19.7% vs spot)
Supply · baseDemand · baseEq base

Supply / demand balance

The physical surplus or deficit sitting underneath the price.

Scenario mix · daily evolution (35 runs · Jun–Jul 2026)

Scenario mix over time

How the deficit / balance / surplus split has shifted day by day since June.

See a real report

Actual pages from the report of July 16, 2026.

◦ Real output — lightly trimmed. This is the depth every daily report carries.

Executive briefing

Arabica at 313.95 ¢/lb, Robusta at 3,797 USD/MT, differential +3,124. The market shows tension between a 10.5M-bag surplus and an 11.6% stocks/consumption ratio (tight, below the ICO 12% threshold). Brazil crossed the tenderable threshold, enabling certification arbitrage. High-level droughts active in Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Mexico.

Scenarios · next 8–12 weeks
Deficit360–420 ¢/lb39%
Balance290–340 ¢/lb40%
Surplus220–260 ¢/lb21%

Calibrated Monte Carlo · slight bullish bias from active climate alerts in a tight market.

Consolidated alerts
HIGHSimultaneous drought in 4 origins (India, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam) — systemic pattern.
HIGHBrazil: tender threshold crossed — certification arbitrage enabled (bearish flow risk).
HIGHArabica certificates at 334,289 bags — critical low, falling −11,717 bags/week.
Weather & harvest by origin
BrazilALERTPeak harvest; erratic rain interrupting drying in Minas Gerais.
IndiaALERTSevere rain deficit (20% of normal) + heat stressing bean fill.
HondurasALERTExcess rain (183% of normal) raising fungal-disease risk.
VietnamWATCHRest period; normal rain holding soil moisture pre-flowering.
ColombiaNORMALVegetative rest; heat accelerating floral development.
Technical analysis · how to position
Robusta ICE · USD/t · ~90d (close only)
CloseResistanceSupportScenario percentiles

Robusta holding above support near 3,738; spot 3,797 with the model's median (P50) at 3,975 and upside to P75 4,728. Solid lines are support/resistance from pivot touches; dashed levels are 60-day scenario percentiles — the map for where to enter, protect and take profit.

The platform

Not a PDF in your inbox. A platform you log into.

Every daily report lives in one place — searchable, with history. Alongside the daily, you get special reports on the forces that reshape the market for months: the El Niño climate effect, supply-and-demand deep-dives, origin-specific harvest outlooks.

Your reportsLIVE
Daily report — Jul 23, 2026DAILY
El Niño 2026 — climate effect on priceSPECIAL · NEW
Supply & demand balance — Q3SPECIAL
Brazil harvest outlookSPECIAL
Daily report — Jul 22, 2026ARCHIVE
Track record

The only read that audits itself.

Every call is checked against the real price at 7, 14, 30, 60 and 90 days. QNT doesn't ask you to trust it — it shows you the record, inside the platform.

Directional accuracy · last 90 days
7 days
71%
14 days
68%
30 days
64%
60 days
61%
90 days
58%
Who it's for

Three places in the chain. One report, three decisions.

ORIGINATORS

Exporters & co-ops

Is today's price good, or will it be better next week?

  • Price bias & hedge timing
  • Arabica & Robusta scenarios
  • Weather in your regions
  • Volatility alerts
TRADERS

Commodity desks

You need one consolidated read before the next session.

  • COT, forward curve, open interest
  • Certified stocks & A–R spreads
  • Daily consolidated signal
  • Squeeze alerts
ROASTERS

Roasters & importers

Coffee can move 30% in six weeks. Buy now or wait?

  • Supply/demand balance
  • 3–6 month scenarios
  • A–R differential for your blends
  • Critical ICE inventory alerts
Pricing

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  • Complete report history
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Monthly market analysis for origin sellers.

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Reports oriented to roasters and buyers.

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Full intelligence: predictive scenarios and physical differentials.

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Special Report
$20 / one-time

One-off purchase of a single special report (El Niño, S&D and more).

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Founding clients · August 2026

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